How Well Do Elo-Based Mostly Ratings Predict Professional Tennis Matches?

This paper examines the efficiency of five completely different measures for forecasting men’s and women’s professional tennis matches. We use knowledge derived from every match played at the 2018 and 2019 Wimbledon tennis championships, the 2019 French Open, the 2019 US Open, and the 2020 Australian Open. We look at the betting odds, the official tennis rankings, the usual Elo scores, floor-specific Elo scores, and weighted composites of these scores, including and excluding the betting odds. The efficiency indicators used are prediction accuracy, calibration, model discrimination, Brier rating, and anticipated return. We discover that the betting odds carry out comparatively properly throughout these tournaments, whereas customary Elo (particularly for women’s tennis) and floor-adjusted Elo (especially for men’s tennis) additionally carry out nicely on a range of indicators. For all however the exhausting-court surfaces, a forecasting mannequin which incorporates the betting odds tends additionally to carry out nicely on some indicators. We find that the official rating system proved to be a relatively poor measure of seemingly efficiency compared to betting odds and Elo-related methods. Our results add weight to the case for a wider use of Elo-based approaches inside sports forecasting, as well as arguably within the participant rankings methodologies.

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